First published on 14th May 2026. Written by Joe Costa, Director of the Forward Defense program in the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
As European and Middle Eastern capitals coordinate with Washington while simultaneously questioning its long-term reliability, it’s worth remembering that the foundation for a more autonomous security partnership between Europe and the Gulf already exists.
Despite political disagreements with Washington in each instance, some European NATO allies have contributed forces, and provided logistical support, to every major US military operation in the Middle East over the last four decades. The US remained the undeniable leader of these operations, but Europeans emerged from them with an understanding of the threat environment, the logistical challenges, and, crucially, the lessons from fighting alongside regional partners.
This cooperation extended into the intelligence domain. During the fight against the Islamic State group that began in 2014, European and Middle Eastern states operated within shared architectures for targeting and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. European and Gulf states have been patrolling the same waters and sharing the same intelligence since the early 2000s as part of the Combined Maritime Forces naval coalition designed to protect civilian shipping traffic.
Decades of multilateral military training has further reinforced these ties. European and Middle Eastern states have regularly trained together during recurring US-led exercises such as Bright Star in Egypt and Eager Lion in Jordan. These exercises improve trust, culture, interoperability, command and control, political cohesion, and operational readiness among allies.
Finally, European defence exports to the Middle East are substantial and growing. From 2020 to 2024, Italy, France, and Germany alone accounted for nearly 30 percent of all arms imports to the Middle East, making Europe the second largest source of arms in the region after the United States.
This combination of shared operational experience, intelligence cooperation, and deep industrial ties means Europe is better positioned than any partner outside the United States to expand its role in a future Middle Eastern security architecture. The question is whether European and Middle Eastern capitals have the political will, resources, and interest to build it regardless of the direction Washington takes.
US strikes in southern Iran drew a sharp warning from Tehran that any further attacks would provoke a response “far more severe” and extending beyond the region. Meanwhile, the Trump administration told NATO members last week that it intends to significantly reduce the military assets the US makes available to the alliance in a crisis. Fighter jet contributions would fall by a third, strategic bomber numbers would be halved, fewer destroyers would be allocated, and the US would no longer provide any submarines. The move compounds existing transatlantic strains: President Donald Trump has threatened to withdraw from the alliance entirely, criticized European allies over their lack of support for the US-Israeli war against Iran, and pledged to withdraw US troops from Germany.
Tom Warwick, Nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, says:
“Iranian threats to escalate beyond the Gulf should be taken seriously, but are not new. Iran has been carrying out a series of cyberattacks against US targets, including the Los Angeles transit authority according to recent reports from an Israeli cybersecurity firm. Iran has long wanted to carry out terrorist attacks in the US homeland. Iranian operatives are suspected of carrying out a wave of attacks in Europe.
Even if there is a formal end to the shooting war between Iran and the United States, history suggests that Iran will continue its asymmetric campaign against the United States, US officials that Iran holds responsible for killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and Israeli or Jewish interests in Europe and the United States.”
The conflict in Iran is severely weakening Europe’s largest economy, Germany, and its growth prospects for the year. More than a quarter of German businesses interviewed for the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s annual survey assess the current situation as “poor.” But European tech shares have moved in the opposite direction: Despite the STOXX 600 falling over 2 percent since February 28, Europe’s technology sub-index has climbed 10 percent, hitting its highest level since 2000 this week.
Piotr Arak, Nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, says:
“Europe’s tech sub-index does not signal a broad-based tech revival. The world’s most advanced semiconductor machinery production company—ASML, headquartered in the Netherlands—accounts for a disproportionate share of index performance. With ASML representing roughly 28 percent of the STOXX Europe 600 Technology index, and SAP and Infineon adding much of the remainder, the index is increasingly a narrow expression of global AI capex rather than a story of European innovation.
The bond market is sending a clearer signal, with thirty-year yields at their highest levels in over a decade. The long end of the euro curve has steepened as markets price in structurally higher defense spending, energy support measures, and a widening fiscal path, with EU deficits projected to rise from 3.1 percent of GDP in 2025 to 3.6 percent in 2027.
That shift leaves the European Central Bank increasingly boxed in. Inflation at 3.1 percent in 2026, a full percentage point above its autumn forecast, limits the scope for easing even as eurozone growth slows to 0.9 percent. Markets are now pricing the possibility of further rate increases in the eurozone, even as the US cycle moves in the opposite direction.”
The war is straining the Gulf’s bid to become a global hub for artificial intelligence. Before the conflict, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar were drawing “hyperscale” companies to build huge data centers, taking advantage of the region’s low-cost energy and strategic geography—but two Amazon data centers in the UAE were targeted early in the war, investment decisions on some projects have stalled, and consumer gas prices in the UAE jumped 30 percent in April as governments began passing higher energy costs to industrial users.
Hany Ghanem, Nonresident senior fellow with the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs, says:
“Energy is the base component of the ‘AI layer cake.’ The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is stress-testing the region’s AI aspirations by exerting dual pressures on the energy and infrastructure components. As Europe adapts its AI industry, four years into a destabilizing war in Ukraine, and develops its defense technology capabilities, its technology markets show resilience as other sectors falter.
The Gulf stands at a vital juncture in its AI journey with a key energy advantage. How the region balances and adapts its strategic visions to geopolitical realities and post-conflict recovery is key to building a sustainable AI industry that can improve the region’s economic resilience as it continues to diversify away from reliance on hydrocarbons.”
Talks to finalize an agreement between Washington and Tehran moved forward despite the US attacks in southern Iran. Europeans and Gulf countries welcomed the diplomatic advancements, with Qatar’s prime minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani meeting Iranian negotiators in Doha. Under what conditions the Strait of Hormuz would reopen remained unclear.
Ian Brzezinski, Senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, says:
“Many Europeans may ask why they should contribute military forces to support a US effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz just as the United States is reducing its military commitments to the NATO alliance.
Assuming that contribution rests on a sound and clearly articulated transatlantic strategy to ensure free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Europe’s interests will be served twofold. First and foremost, it is in Europe’s own direct interests that free passage through the strait be sustained. Second, despite President Donald Trump’s skepticism of NATO, Europe needs to take the long bet on the transatlantic security relationship, recognizing that the vast majority of the American polity does value that relationship.”
The Europe Gulf Alert is produced by Kayra Sener, Jacopo Pastorelli, and Alex Elnagdy, and edited by Mary Kate Aylward and Hany Ghanem.
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